1 entry tagged honesty, newest first.
In February 1944 the Allies estimated German tank production two ways. The spies said 1,400 a month. The serial numbers on captured gearboxes said 270. The German records, found after the war, said 276. The whole method is one line — the highest number you have seen, plus one more average gap — and this page shows that it is exactly unbiased, that the obvious alternative is more than twice as wide, and how many serial numbers you need before the answer is worth printing.